rxdxt

Decline and rise of an empire

So I've often stated that we are living through the decline of the American empire. Given the events of October 2008 I think few would disagree (predicted here). The question of who will rise, however, is always a topic of some debate.

The general consensus is that it's an emerging Market, the usual subjects are China, India, and Brazil with the occasional dark horses of Russia/CIS and even the EU.

At the Between conference in Capri last week over dinner, some friends and I were having this exact discussion. I gave my usual pronouncement that while I admire the Market power of China as an entrepreneur I find it a difficult place to believe in due the existence of only the carrot of market opportunity with no stick of legal/international due process. I pushed my straw man Eu theory (see earlier blog post) and someone raised the ever present counter of India. I found myself struck by a sudden realization. The rise of the American empire was really and innately about dominance of the American media & entertainment business. The cultural imperialism of cinema, music and tv drove demand for goods and services in the world which in turn positioned the us as a world leader in hearts and minds. The rest, as they say is history!

Under this methodology the new and rising media force in the world is actually India - more specifically bollywood! Their voracious output paired with rising - though confusing  - cultural adoption in MENA and Asia make an excellent case for India as the next world empire. Add this to the enormous percentage of the World's millionaires who, thanks to silicon valley and the h1 visa include a greater percentage of Indians than any other!  Something to ponder as we consider the future, yet I know a few things about the future:
It's viral, the future empire will build through cellular infection, not through military or mass Market dominance

It will intrinsically understand sustainability and that in a closed system inputs and outputs must always be equal, wheel of life indeed.

It will look nothing like today, yet is is just around the corner 

(note edited for clarity - note to self, don't blog at 3am)

Makes you think...

Yesterday I attended the monthly management meeting at the BBC (hosted by Mark Thompson), in addition to lots of boring or secret bits, we recieved an amazing synopsis of the financial crisis, by the BBC editor in charge of coverage. I sat, truly in awe of the nature of circumstances we are watching. While I've been mostly out of the stock Market for months awaiting this crash, I am still astonished at it's speed and ferocity. The editor pointed out to us many facts about howtiis mess had spiraled out of control and how the measures we used furthered that spiral.

But today it became real to me. In my car this am my driver talked about how his wives inheritence was deposited in icesave and rbos, and how he banked with b&b, while an uncomfortable coincidence listening to him fret (and rightfully so) I suddenly was struck by how lucky and blessed I am. I have an anaIng wife, most of my money, a good job and two amazing children, what more could someone ask for?

Suddenly, for a brief moment, I was in that state we bhuddists pursue, one of pure desirelessness.

Off to Capri to speak - Friday is a big day for me, I have a lot decisions about my future to make.

The Green Thing...

So last night, at the invitation of the CEO of SpinVox (which, btw if you haven't tried it is simply the most important and useful new technology I've stumbled on since the blackberry - Voice to screen - with the 1st killer application emailing me perfectly transcribed voice mails with smart text phone numbers in them.)  I attended the launch of an environmental non-profit here in the UK called The Green Thing. It's founded by a couple of chaps from the advertising business including Andy Hobsbawm who founded my old nemesis Agency.  (razorfish and agency were the Hatfield's and Mccoys of the old interactive agency days.)

The event was lovely, great food, good conversation.  The ask wasn't too harsh and I felt these were people who really want to make a difference.  The idea is quite simple really - build a set of small, viral, jib jab style vignettes (website, emails videos, etc.) which encourage people to do one "green" thing a month. Like walking instead of driving for instance.

What I found most fascinating was in chatting with various folks at the event how knowledgeable people in Europe are about the topic of climate change compared to the US.  I'm going to try and help them in a few ways including arranging a benefit screening of Who Killed the Electric Car? I did meet a chap in the electronics refurbishing and recycling business who was lovely - and has a VERY interesting business model.

As I start to build my UK network I find its both simple and challenging. People are quite welcoming and interesting, but I don't seem to be communicating for some reason that I really am looking for a job.  Is it really so hard to imagine that I just might want to get re-engaged in something to do which is NOT of my own initial construction?

I still think that in the perfect world, I'd start an early or mid-stage VC fund. But my sense is that I don't quite have the profile to do this yet. Over the past three weeks I've met with 20-30 entrepreneurs and found easily 8 companies I would have invested in if I was on that track.  London is a fascinating place and I'm still in love with it.

 

Globalization - repost from Vox

So just about every day I read something about Globalization. Here in the UK it's almost always negative.

I find this so strange from a country whose massive colonialism and it's impact on the world are largely
responsible for much of what we now negatively associate with the concept. (before you rant, please note I'm talking historical precedent here not currently - the US definitely owns that position of honor.)

My feelings about Globalization are largely mixed. On the one hand I love to travel, and enjoy nothing more in the world than landing/wandering/getting lost and ending up in a town without one multinational advertisement or retail establishment. It doesn't happen often, the last time was deep in northern Romania - but when it does it's magic. So I guess you could say emotionally I'm with the anti-Global's; the world is a better place when we spend in our communities, use less fossil fuel and preserve our culture.

Except that it's not. One of the amazing things about technology, progress and innovation is the shrinking of the planet. The fact that I have been able to travel to all of the countries on the map above is the direct result of this. So I'm troubled. On the one hand my personal carbon footprint due to my traveling around the world is definitely larger than usual. Especially since my days as a roadie I've personally mixed up some foreign cultures between my music & film work and I know I've been responsible for the metaphorical cultural cross-pollination that naturally occurs.

But, and maybe it's because I'm mostly white (though not as much as you all might think), male, middle-aged and American that I think this is a good thing - but I still think it is. Trade, for the most part, is good - if it's Fair Trade. Cultural interchange has brought us the blues, reggae & dub and for that matter most of the great art of the 21st century.

In business terms, most of the wealth, success and happiness attributed to progress have to do with globalization and it's ability to open new markets and expand existing ones. I think most of the anti-globalization folks are off the mark - they should be screaming about sustainability. They should be yelling about free markets and fair trade (eliminating subsidies, corruption and increasing open markets, while rewarding sustainable business activities. In short, to borrow from Google. They should be demonstrating with signs that read "Don't be evil"

As long as we're conducting ourselves sustainably, I can't see the issue. More importantly, I think globalization is inevitable. We live in a smaller world, we've already met each other. We're going to fuck, trade, fight, innovate, steal, and love - lets just do it for the better good; with an eye to leaving the world a better place than we found it.

Next post will be less ranty - this is copied from my personal blog - which is here: