Decline and rise of an empire

So I've often stated that we are living through the decline of the American empire. Given the events of October 2008 I think few would disagree (predicted here). The question of who will rise, however, is always a topic of some debate.

The general consensus is that it's an emerging Market, the usual subjects are China, India, and Brazil with the occasional dark horses of Russia/CIS and even the EU.

At the Between conference in Capri last week over dinner, some friends and I were having this exact discussion. I gave my usual pronouncement that while I admire the Market power of China as an entrepreneur I find it a difficult place to believe in due the existence of only the carrot of market opportunity with no stick of legal/international due process. I pushed my straw man Eu theory (see earlier blog post) and someone raised the ever present counter of India. I found myself struck by a sudden realization. The rise of the American empire was really and innately about dominance of the American media & entertainment business. The cultural imperialism of cinema, music and tv drove demand for goods and services in the world which in turn positioned the us as a world leader in hearts and minds. The rest, as they say is history!

Under this methodology the new and rising media force in the world is actually India - more specifically bollywood! Their voracious output paired with rising - though confusing  - cultural adoption in MENA and Asia make an excellent case for India as the next world empire. Add this to the enormous percentage of the World's millionaires who, thanks to silicon valley and the h1 visa include a greater percentage of Indians than any other!  Something to ponder as we consider the future, yet I know a few things about the future:
It's viral, the future empire will build through cellular infection, not through military or mass Market dominance

It will intrinsically understand sustainability and that in a closed system inputs and outputs must always be equal, wheel of life indeed.

It will look nothing like today, yet is is just around the corner 

(note edited for clarity - note to self, don't blog at 3am)

Comments

[Peter Duke]

pmnupreawnce?

predominance, perhaps.

India may have home-spun, but don't count the Anglo-American yarn-spinners out. The mastery of Poetics seems to have cultural purchase that Bollywood has not completely grokked.

That said, M Night Shamalamadingdong is pretty damn good!

[Stephen Anspach]

rdt: "Given the events of October 2008 I think few would disagree."

i disagree. where people make mistakes in predicting things like this is assuming global finance is a zero sum game (tip: it's not).

while we don't currently have the growth prospects of a developing nation like China or India, it doesn't mean we'll be worse off twenty years in the future. ten years from now, the US will be better than it is now, and twenty years down the road it'll be better than it is in ten.

we have a wonderful system in the US. just because every few decades everybody gets overly greedy and it freaks out and it coughs up a hairball doesn't mean it's broken. far from it, actually.

also, there is a huge advantage we have over other developing capitalist-wannabee countries (e.g., Russia): experience. we're been doing this "capitalism thing" for a long time now, and we just keep getting better at it. debacles like the current one provide an opportunity to improve our system. we may take that opportunity, we may fluff it, but one thing's for sure: i wouldn't count out the good old US of A just yet...

[proofreader]

damn please do at least a basic edit of your post...it is good info, just look at stuff that is underlined in red at least.